2036 / THE FUTURE BEYOND THE FUTURE
Urban Systems + Simulation + Infrastructure Resilience
What if a city could stop a chain reaction of failures before it starts?
A city could begin managing electricity, water, transportation and emergency services as parts of an interdependent system, spotting when one failure threatens to pull down several others.
THE BIG PICTURE / IN 30 SECONDS
Five ideas.
One extraordinary possibility.
2031
2036
- 01
Our cities depend on networks that are far more connected than they look. A power outage can affect water pumping; flooded streets can delay emergency vehicles; a communications failure can make it harder to coordinate repairs.
- 02
Yet the systems are often planned and operated by different organizations. Utilities, road authorities, hospitals and emergency teams may each have useful information without a complete picture of how their problems could spread.
- 03
Better sensing, simulation and coordination could reveal the relationships before a crisis becomes severe. A digital model might show which pumping stations need backup electricity or which roads are vital if a hospital loses ordinary access.
- 04
By the early 2030s, cities could start practising complex failures together rather than planning in isolation. They might run joint exercises and prepare approved responses that protect the most critical services when trouble arrives.
- 05
The extraordinary 2036 possibility is a city that recognizes and interrupts a dangerous chain reaction. Not a city immune to storms or cyberattacks, but one capable of acting across systems before a localized failure becomes a much larger emergency.
One failure can threaten several essential services. The U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology is developing community-resilience models that explicitly examine dependencies between power, water, buildings and transportation. This is an established planning problem, not a claim that one central computer can already prevent disasters across a city.
THE BIGGER STORY: What happens when a city starts thinking about the connections between its systems—not just the performance of each one separately?
THE FULL STORY / TODAY'S EVIDENCE, TOMORROW'S POSSIBILITIES
What happens when
the breakthroughs compound?
The extraordinary possibility: A city could begin managing electricity, water, transportation and emergency services as parts of an interdependent system, spotting when one failure threatens to pull down several others.
Imagine the difference
A severe storm approaches a city. Most residents are watching the weather report. Utility workers are preparing for outages, water managers are checking pumping facilities, emergency planners are reviewing hospital access, and transport officials are monitoring flood-prone roads. Every team understands its own responsibilities.
But suppose a single power substation serves a water facility, several traffic signals and a hospital support building. If that substation fails, the city could experience several disruptions at once. A road closure might then delay the crew needed to restore power. A problem that begins as one damaged piece of equipment could become a chain of escalating difficulties.
Now imagine that these dependencies are understood and tested before the storm. Backup power can be positioned strategically, alternative routes can be designated, critical facilities can prepare and teams can communicate using shared procedures. No one has prevented the storm. But they may have prevented some of its worst secondary consequences.
That's what makes connected infrastructure fascinating. The biggest improvement may come not from making any one system dramatically stronger, but from understanding how to keep the whole city functioning when parts of it fail.
2026: Researchers are already modeling interdependent systems
The National Institute of Standards and Technology has been developing tools that help communities examine buildings, power, water and transportation together. The goal is to understand which investments make a community more resilient when natural hazards strike. Its work recognizes that stronger individual buildings are not enough if people cannot reach them or essential services stop working.
Researchers have also studied cascading failures in complex urban infrastructure. A problem in the electricity network can affect water, communications or transportation; the secondary consequences depend on how tightly the systems are connected and whether alternatives exist. These are not new discoveries in principle, but better data and computing allow engineers and planners to analyze the relationships in greater detail.
However, a simulation is only as trustworthy as its assumptions. A model may not capture the full behaviour of residents in an emergency, the actual condition of equipment or deliberate attacks on the systems. Some information is commercially sensitive or security-critical. Cities will also have to deal with institutions that operate under different regulations and budgets.
2031: The city rehearses a crisis before the crisis arrives
Imagine a city in 2031 conducting a coordinated exercise. It simulates an extended outage during extreme heat. Instead of producing separate reports for electricity, healthcare and transportation, the planners assess how events might unfold together: which cooling centres would remain powered, which roads could be blocked, which communications services might fail and where emergency workers would face the greatest pressure.
The exercise may reveal that the most cost-effective improvement isn't a giant new computer. It could be an additional generator at a pumping station, a revised emergency route, a more reliable communications link or an agreement allowing two agencies to share resources. Better intelligence can make ordinary investments much more effective when it helps people see the wider consequences.
An important design principle is graceful failure. The systems should remain useful when the data network is unreliable and when human operators need to take over. A city that relies on one tightly connected platform could create a new single point of failure. The aim is resilience through coordination, not excessive dependence on automation.
2036: Interrupting the dominoes
By 2036, some cities might combine better forecasting, infrastructure monitoring and tested response plans so that agencies recognize related threats earlier. A rising flood could trigger approved preventive actions at selected facilities. An equipment problem could prompt teams to protect an essential water supply before an outage spreads. Emergency response could use regularly updated models of roads, energy systems and service demand to allocate scarce resources more intelligently.
The deeper shift would be from managing assets to managing continuity of life. The question isn't merely whether a traffic light works; it's whether emergency crews and residents can still reach the places they need. It's not only whether a substation operates; it's whether hospitals, water facilities and communications continue functioning.
But there is a serious counter-risk. A highly connected city can become more vulnerable if a malicious actor gains access to shared control systems or if a flawed model issues a damaging recommendation. Agencies must retain clear authority, and automated actions must be constrained, audited and reversible wherever possible.
A good future city would be more coordinated without becoming a giant, opaque machine controlling everyone who lives there.
IT GETS PERSONAL / FOUR DIMENSIONS OF CHANGE
What could this mean
for my future?
My life
Residents could benefit from fewer secondary outages, better emergency communication and more reliable access to essential services during extreme events. Some of the value would appear in crises that never became catastrophic. But people should demand evidence that preparedness is improving—not simply accept a city's announcement that it has installed a 'smart city platform.'
My career
Opportunities could grow for people who understand both a particular infrastructure system and its dependencies on others: civil engineers, emergency planners, utility operators, data analysts, cybersecurity specialists and community leaders. The most valuable skill may be translating technical warnings into decisions that different teams can act upon together.
My business
A company with a major facility should map what it depends on outside its property: roads, water, communications, electricity and local emergency services. A backup generator may do little if the business cannot receive supplies or reach its employees. A practical first step is to test one scenario in which two dependencies fail simultaneously and ask how operations would continue.
My industry and community
Utilities and local governments may need stronger agreements on shared data, responsibilities and crisis response. Critical information should be protected, but the absence of shared understanding creates its own risks. Public trust matters: residents should know how continuity is being protected without having their ordinary activities subjected to unnecessary surveillance.
JIM CARROLL'S PERSPECTIVE
The danger lies between the silos
Jim Carroll's work on infrastructure, energy, utilities and technological convergence repeatedly examines the consequences of systems becoming more connected. For leaders, the opportunity is not simply deploying another sensor or software platform. It is recognizing where an assumption made by one organization becomes a risk for another.
A useful leadership exercise is to ask: What do we depend upon that we don't control—and what happens if it fails at the same moment as something else?
THE REALITY CHECK / WHAT MUST HAPPEN FIRST
What must happen before this future becomes real?
Cities need dependable infrastructure data, shared planning, practical emergency authority, strong cybersecurity and independent validation of simulations. Public services must preserve manual fallback options. Stronger coordination must not create a new central point of failure.
THE BIGGER YOTTABIT IDEA
The future is bigger
than you think.
The YottaBit possibility is not a city without disasters. It's a city that gets better at preventing one problem from becoming five.
THE SCIENCE / CHECK THE EVIDENCE
Where the facts end
and the future begins.
The sources below support the present-day foundation of this story—not a promise that the 2031 or 2036 scenarios will happen. These are possibilities, not forecasts.
- NIST, Community Resilience Systems Modeling — Modeling dependencies among buildings, water, power and transportation.
- NIST, Infrastructure Resilience — Resilience and trustworthiness of connected systems.
- NIST, Smart City Standardization: A Global Perspective, 2025 — Standards and institutional issues in connected cities.
- Jim Carroll: 30 Megatrends (#25) and energy/infrastructure keynote material.
THE NEXT FUTURE / KEEP EXPLORING